How to Deal with Success in Investing
2:26 AM
What follows is a true story. A US University completed an experiment to learn more about the psychology around the subject of success. Subsequent to the initial experiment, similar experiments have been repeated many times at different places and by many different people.
The experiment is straight forward. It asked people to guess the outcome of tossing a coin. The outcomes are either heads or tails and you guess the outcome and then you are either right or wrong.
On probability, if the coin is tossed you have a 50% chance of guessing correctly which way it will end up. The experiment required 500 tosses of the coin and the outcome followed the laws of probability of around half of the tosses producing a correct guess. This probability outcome is fairly well understood by the experiment subjects, and people generally.
However, within the 500 tosses you will have a good chance of stringing together a number of tosses in a row that you will guess correctly. This is where the psychology of success comes into effect. The experiment asked it's subjects how they felt about their performance in tossing the coin and guessing the correct outcome at various times during the experiment.
What they found was that when people were having successful runs - four or five or six correct guesses in a row - that they believed that they themselves were responsible for this success. Reasons ranged from, I am getting better at this, to I am now concentrating harder and that is improving my performance.
Remebering that the experiment subjects were fully aware of the law of probability at work in the experiment, with a likelihood of 50% of the outcomes being correct and 50% of the outcomes being incorrect, but believed that their talent and/or ability was attributing to their success. Quite disturbing in its contradiction.
This same effect occurs with people investing in the stock market all the time - and this is especially the case with people new to investing and trading. The investor or trader begins to believe, after a winning trade or two that they have some super "talent" for picking stocks and shares. They begin to believe that they have some natural talent that makes them better than the average trader.
The way to manage chance success in your trading/investing is to not become over confident and forget your risk management strategies. Enjoy your success but don't forget the risks. If you do not manage the risk of future trades properly or take on too many trades and over-extend yourself then you may leave yourself volunerable to the Market Slap. The stock market has a habit of slapping down traders who become over confident and take on too much risk with a large loss.
So remember, every trade you take has risk which you need to manage. If you manage your risks and enjoy the chance string of winning trades from time-to-time you will be successful and you will avoid the Market Slap!
The experiment is straight forward. It asked people to guess the outcome of tossing a coin. The outcomes are either heads or tails and you guess the outcome and then you are either right or wrong.
On probability, if the coin is tossed you have a 50% chance of guessing correctly which way it will end up. The experiment required 500 tosses of the coin and the outcome followed the laws of probability of around half of the tosses producing a correct guess. This probability outcome is fairly well understood by the experiment subjects, and people generally.
However, within the 500 tosses you will have a good chance of stringing together a number of tosses in a row that you will guess correctly. This is where the psychology of success comes into effect. The experiment asked it's subjects how they felt about their performance in tossing the coin and guessing the correct outcome at various times during the experiment.
What they found was that when people were having successful runs - four or five or six correct guesses in a row - that they believed that they themselves were responsible for this success. Reasons ranged from, I am getting better at this, to I am now concentrating harder and that is improving my performance.
Remebering that the experiment subjects were fully aware of the law of probability at work in the experiment, with a likelihood of 50% of the outcomes being correct and 50% of the outcomes being incorrect, but believed that their talent and/or ability was attributing to their success. Quite disturbing in its contradiction.
This same effect occurs with people investing in the stock market all the time - and this is especially the case with people new to investing and trading. The investor or trader begins to believe, after a winning trade or two that they have some super "talent" for picking stocks and shares. They begin to believe that they have some natural talent that makes them better than the average trader.
The way to manage chance success in your trading/investing is to not become over confident and forget your risk management strategies. Enjoy your success but don't forget the risks. If you do not manage the risk of future trades properly or take on too many trades and over-extend yourself then you may leave yourself volunerable to the Market Slap. The stock market has a habit of slapping down traders who become over confident and take on too much risk with a large loss.
So remember, every trade you take has risk which you need to manage. If you manage your risks and enjoy the chance string of winning trades from time-to-time you will be successful and you will avoid the Market Slap!
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